Sunday, April 11, 2010

European countries offer $41 billion to Greece

Its like telling an alchoholic - "You know I feel really bad you have been sober for a week. Here kiddo. Here is a bottle of vodka, go have fun."

I think there is some sense in bailing out countries which are essentially solvent, but are going through a balance of payments crisis. Stabilize the currency enough for them to work through the crisis. The Asian countries in the late 90's. They all bounced back strongly.

Given the level of public debt, the budget deficit and rampant tax evasion, Greece has no viable mechanism to pay that money back. Another Argentina waiting to happen. Better to armtwist first and extract serious structural change before lending any money.

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