Over the last couple of years income in India has skyrocketed. I remeber, when entering college, the highest paying job for a 20 something on the market was one of these FMCG companies, which paid about 4-5 lakhs. Even that was considered quite high, most managers would have been happy to make 10-15k a month. Today, the job market is flooded. So much money and jobs floating around with the the BPOs, IT companies, and big MNCs. Most of the employees in these companies are young, have little responsibilities and well willing to spend their money. So there have been all kinds of retail chains and stores that have cropped up over the last few years ! Economic growth.
Is it really? The numbers look great, but there are some interesting points. If, you look at the US, they speak of economic growth, and how per capita income has gone up over the last few years. Do you know that the country that this country also has the lowest per capita savings in world. Most of the popultation is highly indebted and survives on credit cards. Isn't this paradoxical? No it's not! One does not speak of per capita savings, because one cannot!
Lets have a kutti model economy. There are 10 people and 1000 rupees. One person cooks, the other cleans clothes, the other repairs machinery and so on. Each charges for his services. Lets assume, no one is willing to spend, and each would rather do all the work himself. So, each person keeps 100 rupees and there is no exchange of money. But, lets assume the start paying each other's for services, so there is a rotation of money. The more each produces and consumes, the more the rotation and more the per-capita-income, but lesser the saving!! The more money you have, the less money you actually have! Isn't it weird, you earn the most, when you are least willing to keep what you earn!
Another point I have to make, this so called purchasing power of the consumer. Today you earn 5 lakhs a year, when you would have earned 50k 10 years back. You can afford a car, TV and all the other amenities of modern life. Yes, you have greater purchasing power, but it's only for commodites with an 'unlimited' supply, i.e. can be produced. And most things that can be produced are relatively peripheral needs! Unlike what all the adverts tell you, life isn't really that better.
Lets go back to our old example, 1o men and 1000 rupees. Lets assume that one of them gets hold of a bar of chocolate. He wants to sell it and make a profit. He will sell it to the maximum bidder! It is relative. Thus, if everyone has a lot of money, it really doesn't matter. The one with the maximum money always gets the chocolate (assuming he is not allergic to it or something). Thus, the price of commodites naturally shifts up so it remains to be affordable only to a specific percentage of the population.
This basically means that, just because you earn 10 times as much as your father did, you are probably are going to be no better off when it comes to buying a house, eating at a restaurant or doing a lot of other things! The housing market has exploded, they say it is impossible to buy a house today. No, it isn't impossible to buy a house today, it has always been impossible to buy a house. Just because you earn more, as long as you earn less than someone else, that someone can afford it and not you!
What about the other intangible quantity whose supply is limited - respect, admiration, fame! The top 0.1% percent of the population is probably held in awe (or envy!) by the remaining 99.9%. Thus, if you want to be famous, it doesn't matter how good you are in absolute terms, but how you are relative to the population!
As Ayn Rand says, life is not designed to be fair! Actually, it is eminently fair, you get what you deserve, not what you need! What you deserve is relative to what everyone else deserves, and hence intrinsically competitive. No matter how much humanity progresses, certain things have been and will be accessible only to a specific percentage of the population. Natural selection you see!
Is it really? The numbers look great, but there are some interesting points. If, you look at the US, they speak of economic growth, and how per capita income has gone up over the last few years. Do you know that the country that this country also has the lowest per capita savings in world. Most of the popultation is highly indebted and survives on credit cards. Isn't this paradoxical? No it's not! One does not speak of per capita savings, because one cannot!
Lets have a kutti model economy. There are 10 people and 1000 rupees. One person cooks, the other cleans clothes, the other repairs machinery and so on. Each charges for his services. Lets assume, no one is willing to spend, and each would rather do all the work himself. So, each person keeps 100 rupees and there is no exchange of money. But, lets assume the start paying each other's for services, so there is a rotation of money. The more each produces and consumes, the more the rotation and more the per-capita-income, but lesser the saving!! The more money you have, the less money you actually have! Isn't it weird, you earn the most, when you are least willing to keep what you earn!
Another point I have to make, this so called purchasing power of the consumer. Today you earn 5 lakhs a year, when you would have earned 50k 10 years back. You can afford a car, TV and all the other amenities of modern life. Yes, you have greater purchasing power, but it's only for commodites with an 'unlimited' supply, i.e. can be produced. And most things that can be produced are relatively peripheral needs! Unlike what all the adverts tell you, life isn't really that better.
Lets go back to our old example, 1o men and 1000 rupees. Lets assume that one of them gets hold of a bar of chocolate. He wants to sell it and make a profit. He will sell it to the maximum bidder! It is relative. Thus, if everyone has a lot of money, it really doesn't matter. The one with the maximum money always gets the chocolate (assuming he is not allergic to it or something). Thus, the price of commodites naturally shifts up so it remains to be affordable only to a specific percentage of the population.
This basically means that, just because you earn 10 times as much as your father did, you are probably are going to be no better off when it comes to buying a house, eating at a restaurant or doing a lot of other things! The housing market has exploded, they say it is impossible to buy a house today. No, it isn't impossible to buy a house today, it has always been impossible to buy a house. Just because you earn more, as long as you earn less than someone else, that someone can afford it and not you!
What about the other intangible quantity whose supply is limited - respect, admiration, fame! The top 0.1% percent of the population is probably held in awe (or envy!) by the remaining 99.9%. Thus, if you want to be famous, it doesn't matter how good you are in absolute terms, but how you are relative to the population!
As Ayn Rand says, life is not designed to be fair! Actually, it is eminently fair, you get what you deserve, not what you need! What you deserve is relative to what everyone else deserves, and hence intrinsically competitive. No matter how much humanity progresses, certain things have been and will be accessible only to a specific percentage of the population. Natural selection you see!
9 comments:
Yes..the interesting is that...the more you consume/demand..the more money you are likely to earn..but lesser the fraction that actually stays in your hand..
Exactly...absolute standard of living i.e. is relatively easy to obtain..
But a relative standard by definition is accesible only to a section of the population....
How good you feel about life..is defined (quite naturally) by how you are doing with respect to the peer group and not on an absolute basis..
Take the US for example...you might have enough to eat, clothes to wear, a roof to live under and maybe a couple of frills..but you could still be in the dregs of society..simply because everyone has so much more!!
You can NEVER make everyone equal...what you can make equal are the set of rules everyone works under..
But, in the end..someone has to come last..and someone has to come first..
Aha! So A.S.Ramani actually stands for Adam Smith Ramani :P
Can you bring back some kaju kathli for me?
[prashanth]Ha ha...yeah sure..that would be 60$ a kilo...
Adam Smith..who is that?..I have never heard of him!
[intern] Yes! Exactly. Saving is good for you and bad for society as a whole. I think that is true for a number of things. Also, you can earn a lot (for society as whole) if you really don't hold on to most of what you earn!
Are you serious? He is the father of economics and capitalism... go go do a google.
Hmm...I need to check that..
I have vaguely heard of his name..
But, had no idea he was so connected...
Adam Smith looks like a pretty famous guy...suprising I hadn't heard about him before..even in passing..
Kinda surprising .... since so much of what you said in the post is Adam Smithian ...
Anyway lets take kutti economy 1 where people earn more by saving less ... What is suppopsed to happen is that if I decide to ONLY wash clothes, I become better at it than everybody else and I can also try to buy a washing machine with the economies of scale coming in. So it becomes more efficient for me AND everybody else for me to do the washing which also means that the amount of free time everybody has increases as they have specialised.
You also are fixated on savings which is not very good from a macro economic standpoint. I mean what good is money if everybody hoards it. Sure if you hoard it and nobody else does and then and when everybody needs it (if they do) you stand to make a killing. BUT again money is only useful AT the point that it is used not when it is with you idling away ...
As far as housing goes the situation is very very complex and cannot be subject to simple analysis. You cannot have a bungalow in Manhattan not only because it is expensive, But also the fact that you can make more money by building a skyscraper of appartments there and in fact get a bigger living space whicle profiting by the space you sold. Similarly Chennai has moved to appartments which is in many ways more efficient. The fact that you *cannot* get a house is for the very simple reason that it is better for the person who has the land which was to be sold to you to build appartments there instead. If you are fixated on getting a house, You still can slightly farther from the city. This is not as bad as it seems as new chennai is where its at anyway .... In fact I think I will have to dedicate a post to teh real estate market!
The point I was making is that the quality of life *has* improved for most people. Even with commodities like houses, I can say that a higher proportion of Indians own their house today than before. And also the cost of clothes etc has remained static while the amount of money people make has increased, Therefore I do have more clothes, a better car and yes a higher probability of owning the place where I live.
You distinctly forget to include the idea of having different world views.
For example, there are many many societies in india where success isnt an issue, or there isnt a term called success. Furthermore, the idea of work leading to money leading to success is also very puritan in nature.
Even further, the idea of success/failure (including the ideas of truth/false) or actual thoughts in binary form also comes from monotheistic views.
Example society real problem: small tribal village ( lets say interior bihar/uttaranchal/rajasthan/chotta nagpur plateau/etc)
working on land that their ancestors have settled in. Those who went of to the city are just known to be gone.. hardly any contact. Those who are left in the new generation are working in similar or their own innovative manner. Their natural laws need not really coincide with national laws/ideas of morality/human rights, etc ... but amongst them they have agreed upon traditions/cultures etc. Money isnt of much use here. Most use might just be hereditary ..or something ..
Then there is the affect of this kind of "evolution" or thinking pattern on the generations that have departed from the clan ...
what about them .. the manner in which money is spent ... even for the estranged relatives depend on that...
is it at all fair to introduce the concept of money here??... Isnt it actually dangerous and inhuman?? ... I mean for all you know... because some refugeed bangladeshi made some neat money working someplace in india .. might as well go off and buy these guy's lands ( who probably dont have any documents/money to begin with ) .. and throw them out ...
Such things dont happen too often in the western world...
In the eastern... its not always necessary to do things right .. as in the right decision or right choice.. there isnt a good definition of it ...
most people in the east dont even view things like corruption in a bad light as long as it is done with good intent... in the west .. corruption is corruption .. bad.. punishable...
most of philosophies that exist or are well known .. dont touch normal people's condition or lives in the east.. so just juxtaposing it aint fair is it?
:D:D:D...sorry ... late night rambling .. your blog suffers!!!
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