Goldspan opens his mouth...

..and the market drops. Or was it the 8% move in China? Or was it the Yen carry trade * ? Or was it the sub-prime meltdown ? Predictability is to finance what coyness was to Anna Nicole Smith. You can try as hard as you want, but it just isn't there, and is never going to be. Every guy has his own pet theory which predicts the state of the economy out to 20 years, and weirdly if 1000 guys come out with their theories, in the end someone is going to be right! It is impossible to distinguish skill from luck! Better be a lucky fool than an unlucky genius! (Think about it, why do you need to be smart if you have rich parents?! Not the paavam middle class boy I am.) Anyway, most of the trouble comes from it being this weird cat and mouse game, where all your time is spent double guessing the joe across the street.

Of late, I have been following the market quite closely. A bit too obsessively you might say. I can tell you what the SPX did on each day over the last 2 weeks. A 2% move is actually life event, and a quite a talking point. (That would also provide generous hints as to the quality of my life). Its not that I have a stake in whats going on. As a matter of fact, I do, in some vague general survival of the universe sense, but not enought to get worked up though. However, if you are surrounded by a bunch of people whose lives print tick by tick you cannot but help.

One result of this is that my "GK" a.k.a "General Knowledge", that thing you knew to do quiz contests in school and college, is better than it has ever been. See, I have heard something about anything and everything that can move the markets. Democrats vs. Republicans. Obama vs. Clinton vs. Mc Cain vs. ?!. Iraq war. Will US declare war on Iran ? (Well do you want to pay $4.00 a gallon? In that case you might have to. ) Medicare. Medicaid. Social Security. The imploding housing market. Ford and GM. The wreck that is the American car industry. Cheap money. Takeovers and mergers Happy times ! Lets get hitched! Arcelor and Mittal. Tata and Corus. (Even Indian companies have joined the fray. Brothers to the rescue! ) And who can miss the skyrocketing and exploding (like fireworks) markets of India and China. And I follow the non business section as well. Britney baby, to the rehab, one more time! Life is busy but interesting.

* Any trade tries to buy something that is cheap and sell that is expensive, thus making a profit. People lose a shitload of money when they interchange the cheap and expensive part. ( Not very hard to figure that one out, but hard to carry out in practice.) So, the Yen carry trade borrows in Yen (which is cheap as interest rates in Japan are zero) and buys stock in India (which gallop up and down, so you can net 25% if you get lucky). In other words, borrow money from the bank and bet it all on horse or two.

** A month or two back a couple of friends of mine were giving me heat about my largely sceptical view of the crazy run up of real estate prices in India, US and elsewhere. Well guys, take a look at whats happening in the US now. The piece of shit is exploding. Finally, its a good time to buy a house. Palm it off some bankrupt dude in foreclosure. Heh.

*** Spring is back. Hells yeah!

*^4 Remind me to get my camera out. I go on Flickr and see such brilliant photos. I like taking photos! I need to take some! One underestimates how hard it is to capture the perfect moment. Once you have it, it all looks so obvious. Hindsight is 20/20.